Projected shifts in deadwood bryophyte communities under national climate and forestry scenarios benefit large competitors and impair small species

Aim Climate change and habitat loss are the main threats to forest biodiversity. Deadwood bryophyte communities composed of species with different functional traits affected by these processes. Grouping depending on their can help anticipate community responses global change, potential conservation actions. Location National scale Sweden. Taxon (15 liverworts 8 mosses). Methods Generalized linear mixed-effects models were applied test for differences in projected relative changes suitability (matching species’ requirements) among contrasting under varying climate scenarios during years 2020–2100. Projections based ensembles distribution (GLM, Poisson point-process, MaxEnt), national management conservation. Results Shoot length was best predictor future suitability. Habitat suitabilities small, short-lived will decline a warmer wetter macroclimate, whereas those large, perennial increase. We expect stronger decreases obligate than facultative deadwood species. Increasing proportion set-aside forests from 16% 32%, reducing harvest levels production forests, mitigated negative trends several sensitive However, benefits increased even larger favoured suggesting that actions also enhance spread Main conclusions is expected lead shifts boreal towards competitive an overall decrease diversity. High investment seems necessary maintain This should include increasing area set aside beyond 16%, forests. whilst may prevent extinctions, at least short term, structure seem inevitable.